Victoria Cup Bet.
A stab at the biggest race of the day.
Firstly, this is a complete dart in a 29 runner handicap. Whilst I have reasoning, remember the type of bet that it is and bet accordingly, or don’t if huge field handicaps fraught with danger don’t excite you like they do me!
Let’s kick off with the huge negative, stall 5 for HUMAM. Only 1 winner has come from a single figure stall from the last 12 years, but I’m going to (stupidly) ignore this trend and press on as I really this horse. A huge positive is that Humam has experience of a big field Ascot handicap and ran well, 5/19, albeit over shorter. The shorter trip has resulted in nice races, but it’s fairly obvious from one glance at the formbook that 7f is the trip which he returns to today. He is 2/5 from the trip, but the run that impressed me most over 7 was the third to Elarak at Newmarket. Humam was beaten just under 3l that day, winner has lost nothing in defeat since with a rating of 103 as opposed to 96 that day, and really rallied again after looking he was getting swamped. I liked his attitude, even though it didn’t get him over the line, and that could come in very handy in the final furlong here.
Tony Bloom bought the horse in August, and immediately tried to pick up two pots abroad, failed, and sent him here/Newmarket in the above mentioned races which all resulted in nice runs, but not landing anything. They put him away for the winter, and returned with a pipe opener over 6f when stuffed by Double Rush, won again impressively last week, so should be nice and fit for today. You don’t need me to tell you that connections are very shrewd, and he’s sent it to a shrewd trainer that can plot one/ready one, so I expect a big run in what would have been a target with the winter to plan it.
It is a huge field handicap, you could be bang on and find 8 too good for you, or have lots of hard luck stories, but I’m happy to have a small bet on this one.
ADVISED BET
33-1 0.5pt ew (1pt) 6 places. 40-1 5 places available with Hills which I’d take if you can, don’t take under 20-1