Brighton

Apologies how late this is, I was waiting for the market to sort itself out as I thought this would drift to 16/18-1. It should have, and the 9-1 last night was ridiculous, but with the 3 non runners I think the 11-1 is very fair with just 9 left running here.

OH SO AUDACIOUS has made the stable switch from Harry Eustace to Jack Jones, which I don’t see as a downgrade, and was given a very ‘tender’ first race under his training when 9/10 at Leicester, and going off a very friendless 22-1. That was the first run since October, at a track which was never going to suit this one’s style of running, so I’m more than happy to write that off as a pipe opener. Indeed, with form of 5438 fresh I think it was hard to expect anything other than it just being a run out. That’s the beauty of the market at this level sometimes, though, as they’re so lazy they just price them up on the last run. That’s why I was expecting such a big price, and why I felt the 9-1 was poor. For me, that price is more than fair in what I actually think the chances are, but it was very underpriced in terms of the usual MO of traders so I was disappointed.

Anyway, they quickly send OSA back to Brighton after that and it’s fairly obvious to me they’re expecting a big run here. Brighton is the track for this one, form of 413132310, the 0 being last run for Eustace and the only time since novice days the horse was sent off double figures (still only 10-1). I generally hate Brighton as a course, so many lower level horses struggle with it, and regardless of ability you can easily write off so many horses purely due to that. Oh So Audacious is one of the rare ones that will definitely run his race just about every single time, and under the same ownership you have to think the target was always going to be coming back here for a win. He runs off 51 today, form of 131 off that mark which were all here, and this is a fairly poor 0-55. Dion Baker, the current fav, is well handicapped on initial viewing, but I think that’s regressive and will hit the wall soon. I’m confident it’s today, and the price due to the 11 in the form is making the rest of the field way too big.

The other positive around Brighton is Jack Jones’ record here. He doesn’t send many to Brighton at all, but is 4/25 (16% SR), and 10/25 have placed. David Egan takes the ride, interesting as he’s only ever had one runner for the yard, so I decided to take a look at his Brighton stats. He operates at a 15% SR here, 25% above his average of 12% overall, and 69/123 have finished top 4, with 53 of those being top 3. I just think everything is lined up here for Oh So Audacious to run back to Brighton form in a poor race and I think the price currently is very, very fair.

ADVISED BET - OH SO AUDACIOUS 11-1 1pt ew (2pt) 12-1 available with bet365

20:40 Brighton