40-1 NAP

Call me crazy, but hear me out...

I had to have a punt on this when I saw the prices. At first glance, you will think that I’m absolutely crazy and I probably am, but here goes…

TICKTYBOO in the 1.20 Doncaster was something that I’d have priced about 16-1, and it is a classic case of lazy pricing due to last time out. Ignore that, it was in a 0-75 off 59, first red flag if you were expecting it to try that day, it was back off a break, it was over 7f which the horse has never ran over, and it was on the AW. Whilst this has performed decent on those surfaces, this has been campaigned largely as a turf horse and that’s what it is.

So we come to today, drop into a 0-60 off 56, back to 6f, and back on the grass. Eye catching. The interesting thing here is the trainer will always make this a huge price, he is largely poor over the jumps and hasn’t pulled up any trees with limited flat horses. However, he did pick up Kingson and got that to win on stable debut off 62 and his record with 4yo+ horses is 1/4. TICKTYBOO is a much better stable addition than that one, and it’s in the same ownership that it was with Nigel Tinkler. Alex Jary, an apprentice tied to Tinkler, retains the ride, and on the last couple of runs for the yard this showed that it was far from gone at the game.

On last run for Nigel Tinkler, this was a just over 2l 5th, the front two have won numerous times between them since and rated much higher on turf than this one now, the third has won and the 4th should have. Coming from the back that day, it was always tough to make up the ground and he just couldn’t manage it. That was off the back of a 1l third at the same venue, arguably unlucky, and whilst this one isn’t the force of old there was enough in those runs to show a 0-60 of this nature is well within reach for the new trainer. Awarded an opening mark of 80, which was too high, this one held it’s form in the 70s, winning off 74 under Alex Jary, and has slid right down the handicap despite being competitive in a lot of races. Interestingly, it’s never raced at Doncaster but was due to twice, pulled due to really firm ground which makes sense as a run on GF at Beverley was really poor. The current going is good to firm, and I imagine they’ll pull this one if it remains the same, but rain is due at Doncaster and any slight cut back to good will suit.

I think this one is being completely disrespected due to the last run, line through as explained, and the trainer, but a lot of the old yard remains with the owner, jockey, race targets etc, and I’m amazed this running off 53, with the claim, in a 0-60 is 40-1. This is a strong bet for me, and people will be scratching their heads thinking how on earth can you feel this way about a horse of this profile?! Sometimes, you just have to ignore that and I’ve found one that really suits my way of thinking that has been ignored in the market. I’m quite bullish on this one, hence the NAP, but of course you’re betting a 56R horse that hasn’t won in two years and had a major stable downgrade. Every chance this one does absolutely nothing, and I’ll look foolish, but the reason I hit the winners I do, and turn long term profit (a distant memory of late) is trying to exploit angles like this. A big field should suit, and hopefully we get a decent run here. Let’s see what the first time visor brings out…

ADVISED BET 40-1 1pt ew (2pt) 5 places. Do not take under 25-1.